Stats' Sheet 1st Half Mailbag
In this edition, we look the NPI, milestone, and quick games, along with putting the first half of the season in context.
Before we get to your questions, we will put some context to the first half of the season.
Record wise, the Terriers finished the first half just about where they did last year, with one extra game. Historical, in the last decade, BU is a second half team, improving as the calendar turns to January.
Earlier in the season, we shared the above chart showing BU’s defense above average. Basically, it’s xGA (expected Goals Allowed) above the National Average times a weight + GA above the National Average times a weight, both at EV. Noticeable is the defense has tightened up since then, with no Terriers below -2.1 since Quinnipiac.
Mikhail Yegorov, who had a rough October, has begun to return to his former self. His Goals Saved Above Expected has drastically improved—aside from Dec. 6 vs. Vermont—as he has recorded a GSAx less than a goal in every game since November 1st.
And now, onto your questions:
What was the lowest ranked team based on RPI/NPI to make the tournament? And how does that compare to this current BU team - Sean
Due to certain sites that used to allow you to look back at old Pairwise Rankings, breaking the feature. We cannot determine an actual answer, however, in 2015-16 Northeastern ended the first half with a 3-11-2—putting them around 40 in the Pairwise at the time. The Huskies rallied in the 2nd half finishing 22-14-5 winning the Hockey East Tournament and ending up 13th in the final Pairwise.
It’s also a bit useless to try to compare to past seasons because the ranks themselves and their “distance” to a tournament spot are not proportional. For example, the RPI gap from 13 (the last AL spot) to 23 at the end of last season was 0.0306. Additionally, the NPI is different math so we really don’t know exactly how things will project out.
Long story short, as a wise man once said: “Win your games and don’t worry about this!!”
Do you think it was a mistake for the coaching staff to not pursue an upperclassman with some grit in the portal? And do you think Jay and staff will change their recruiting philosophy moving forward? - Bomber
Players are actual people, not items at a store. Just because fans think someone will be fine being on the 4th line as an upperclassman transfer on their team doesn’t mean the player will, when they can be a top 6 forward somewhere else. At the end of the day, hockey players want to play as much hockey as they can.
Recruiting is not an exact science, sometimes a guy will overachieve, and sometimes a guy will underachieve. It’s no longer the 90s, you’re not getting a team of four years of Chris Drury in this day and age. You try to get the most you can get out of the guys you can get. At the end of the day, it’s best to trust the process and the people that know best, because it’s literally their job.
Are any Terriers within reach of 100 career points this season? -defkit
Owen McLaughlin is at 97 including his time at North Dakota, so he is more likely than not going to reach 100. Other than him, Cole Hutson could theoretically reach 100, but currently he is 68 and would need to essentially match his 2nd half of last season when he recorded 34 points from January on.
Maybe a harder one to figure out, but what is the shortest period that BU has ever played - fewest whistles/face offs etc? - Sean T
We weren’t able to find that out, but we were able to find the “shortest game” in terms of total time. Looking at box scores from 2002-03 through 2020-21, the shortest game from start time to end time in the box scores was surprisingly the 2006 Beanpot Final which took a minuscule 1hr and 37 minutes. In that span there were 9 games that were less than 2 hours per the box score:
02/13/2006 (1:37)
10/08/2010 (1:44)
03/23/2013 (1:49)
03/08/2009 (1:50)
12/19/2014 (1:54)
10/12/2013 (1:55)
03/06/2009 (1:56)
11/16/2008 (1:59)
11/17/2013 (1:59)